Auto ARIMA Method for Retail Forecasting Benchmark - OrangeJuice_Pt_3Weeks_Weekly

## Import packages
library(dplyr)

Attaching package: ‘dplyr’

The following objects are masked from ‘package:stats’:

    filter, lag

The following objects are masked from ‘package:base’:

    intersect, setdiff, setequal, union

library(tidyr)
library(forecast)

This is forecast 8.1 
  Want to stay up-to-date? Read the Hyndsight blog:
  https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/

library(MLmetrics)

Attaching package: ‘MLmetrics’

The following object is masked from ‘package:base’:

    Recall

## Define parameters
NUM_ROUNDS <- 12
TRAIN_START_WEEK <- 40
TRAIN_END_WEEK_LIST <- seq(135, 157, 2)
TEST_START_WEEK_LIST <- seq(137, 159, 2)
TEST_END_WEEK_LIST <- seq(138, 160, 2)
# Get the path of the current script and paths of data directories
SCRIPT_PATH = dirname(rstudioapi::getSourceEditorContext()$path)
TRAIN_DIR = file.path(dirname(dirname(SCRIPT_PATH)), 'data', 'train')
TEST_DIR = file.path(dirname(dirname(SCRIPT_PATH)), 'data', 'test')

#### Test auto.arima method on a subset of the data  ####
## Import data
r <- 1
train_df <- read.csv(file.path(TRAIN_DIR, paste0('train_round_', as.character(r), '.csv')))
#head(train_df)
## Fill missing values
store_list <- unique(train_df$store)
brand_list <- unique(train_df$brand)
week_list <- TRAIN_START_WEEK:TRAIN_END_WEEK_LIST[r]
data_grid <- expand.grid(store = store_list,
                           brand = brand_list, 
                           week = week_list)
train_filled <- merge(data_grid, train_df, 
                     by = c('store', 'brand', 'week'), 
                     all.x = TRUE)
train_filled <- train_filled[,c('store','brand','week','logmove')]
head(train_filled)

print('Number of rows with missing values:')

[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"

print(sum(!complete.cases(train_filled)))

[1] 3465

# Fill missing logmove 
train_filled <- 
  train_filled %>% 
  group_by(store, brand) %>% 
  arrange(week) %>%
  fill(logmove) %>%
  fill(logmove, .direction = 'up')

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head(train_filled)

print('Number of rows with missing values after filling:')

[1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"

print(sum(!complete.cases(train_filled)))

[1] 0

## Auto ARIMA method
train_sub <- filter(train_filled, store=='2', brand=='1')
train_ts <- ts(train_sub[c('logmove')], frequency = 52)
horizon <- TEST_END_WEEK_LIST[r] - TRAIN_END_WEEK_LIST[r]
fit_arima <- auto.arima(train_ts)
pred_arima <- forecast(fit_arima, h=horizon)
print('Auto ARIMA forecasts')

[1] "Auto ARIMA forecasts"

pred_arima$mean[2:horizon]

[1] 9.683564 9.683564

plot(pred_arima, main='Auto ARIMA')

#### Implement auto.arima method on all the data  ####
basic_method <- 'arima'
pred_basic_all <- list()
print(paste0('Using ', basic_method))

[1] "Using arima"

## Basic methods 
apply_basic_methods <- function(train_sub, method) {
  cur_store <- train_sub$store[1]
  cur_brand <- train_sub$brand[1]
  train_ts <- ts(train_sub[c('logmove')], frequency = 52)
  if (method == 'naive'){
    pred_basic <- naive(train_ts, h=pred_horizon)
  } else if (method == 'snaive'){
    pred_basic <- snaive(train_ts, h=pred_horizon)
  } else if (method == 'meanf'){
    pred_basic <- meanf(train_ts, h=pred_horizon)
  } else if (method == 'ets') {
    fit_ets <- ets(train_ts)
    pred_basic <- forecast(fit_ets, h=pred_horizon)
  } else if (method == 'arima'){
    fit_arima <- auto.arima(train_ts)
    pred_basic <- forecast(fit_arima, h=pred_horizon)
  }
  pred_basic_df <- data.frame(round = rep(r, pred_steps),
                              store = rep(cur_store, pred_steps),
                              brand = rep(cur_brand, pred_steps),
                              week = pred_weeks,
                              weeks_ahead = pred_weeks_ahead,
                              prediction = round(exp(pred_basic$mean[2:pred_horizon])))
}
for (r in 1:NUM_ROUNDS) { 
  print(paste0('---- Round ', r, ' ----'))
  pred_horizon <- TEST_END_WEEK_LIST[r] - TRAIN_END_WEEK_LIST[r]
  pred_steps <- TEST_END_WEEK_LIST[r] - TEST_START_WEEK_LIST[r] + 1
  pred_weeks <- TEST_START_WEEK_LIST[r]:TEST_END_WEEK_LIST[r]
  pred_weeks_ahead <- pred_weeks - TRAIN_END_WEEK_LIST[r]
  ## Import training data
  train_df <- read.csv(file.path(TRAIN_DIR, paste0('train_round_', as.character(r), '.csv')))
  ## Fill missing values
  store_list <- unique(train_df$store)
  brand_list <- unique(train_df$brand)
  week_list <- TRAIN_START_WEEK:TRAIN_END_WEEK_LIST[r]
  data_grid <- expand.grid(store = store_list,
                           brand = brand_list, 
                           week = week_list)
  train_filled <- merge(data_grid, train_df, 
                        by = c('store', 'brand', 'week'), 
                        all.x = TRUE)
  train_filled <- train_filled[,c('store','brand','week','logmove')]
  head(train_filled)
  print('Number of rows with missing values:')
  print(sum(!complete.cases(train_filled)))
  # Fill missing logmove 
  train_filled <- 
    train_filled %>% 
    group_by(store, brand) %>% 
    arrange(week) %>%
    fill(logmove) %>%
    fill(logmove, .direction = 'up')
  head(train_filled)
  print('Number of rows with missing values after filling:')
  print(sum(!complete.cases(train_filled)))
  
  # Apply basic method
  pred_basic_all[[paste0('Round', r)]] <- 
    train_filled %>%
    group_by(store, brand) %>%
    do(apply_basic_methods(., basic_method))
}

[1] "---- Round 1 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3465

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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 2 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3476

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|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

|                                                                                                                                  |  1% ~7 m remaining     
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|================================================================================================================================  | 98% ~3 s remaining     
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|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~2 s remaining     
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|================================================================================================================================= | 99% ~2 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= | 99% ~1 s remaining     
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|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~1 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     
|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 3 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3498

|============================================                                                                                      | 34% ~4 s remaining     
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|====================================================================================================================              | 89% ~1 s remaining     
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|=======================================================================================================================           | 92% ~0 s remaining     
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|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     
|==========================================                                                                                        | 33% ~4 s remaining     
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|==============================================================================================================================    | 97% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 98% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= | 99% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

|                                                                                                                                  |  1% ~6 m remaining     
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|==============                                                                                                                    | 12% ~4 m remaining     
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|=================                                                                                                                 | 14% ~4 m remaining     
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|===================                                                                                                               | 15% ~4 m remaining     
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|===================                                                                                                               | 15% ~3 m remaining     
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|============================================================================================================================      | 96% ~8 s remaining     
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|=============================================================================================================================     | 96% ~8 s remaining     
|=============================================================================================================================     | 96% ~8 s remaining     
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|==============================================================================================================================    | 97% ~6 s remaining     
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|==============================================================================================================================    | 97% ~5 s remaining     
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|==============================================================================================================================    | 98% ~5 s remaining     
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|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~4 s remaining     
|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~4 s remaining     
|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~4 s remaining     
|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~4 s remaining     
|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~4 s remaining     
|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~3 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 98% ~3 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~3 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~3 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~2 s remaining     
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|================================================================================================================================= | 99% ~2 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= | 99% ~1 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= | 99% ~1 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~1 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~1 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     
|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 4 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3509

|=============================================                                                                                     | 35% ~4 s remaining     
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|=================================================================================================                                 | 75% ~1 s remaining     
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|===================================================================================================================               | 88% ~1 s remaining     
|====================================================================================================================              | 89% ~1 s remaining     
|=====================================================================================================================             | 90% ~1 s remaining     
|======================================================================================================================            | 91% ~1 s remaining     
|=======================================================================================================================           | 92% ~0 s remaining     
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|===========================================================================================================================       | 95% ~0 s remaining     
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|================================================================================================================================= | 99% ~0 s remaining     
|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     
|============================================                                                                                      | 35% ~4 s remaining     
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|=================================================================================================                                 | 75% ~1 s remaining     
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|=======================================================================================================                           | 79% ~1 s remaining     
|========================================================================================================                          | 80% ~1 s remaining     
|=========================================================================================================                         | 81% ~1 s remaining     
|===========================================================================================================                       | 82% ~1 s remaining     
|============================================================================================================                      | 83% ~1 s remaining     
|=============================================================================================================                     | 84% ~1 s remaining     
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|================================================================================================================                  | 86% ~1 s remaining     
|=================================================================================================================                 | 87% ~1 s remaining     
|==================================================================================================================                | 88% ~1 s remaining     
|====================================================================================================================              | 89% ~1 s remaining     
|=====================================================================================================================             | 90% ~1 s remaining     
|======================================================================================================================            | 91% ~1 s remaining     
|=======================================================================================================================           | 92% ~0 s remaining     
|=========================================================================================================================         | 93% ~0 s remaining     
|==========================================================================================================================        | 94% ~0 s remaining     
|===========================================================================================================================       | 95% ~0 s remaining     
|============================================================================================================================      | 96% ~0 s remaining     
|==============================================================================================================================    | 97% ~0 s remaining     
|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

|                                                                                                                                  |  1% ~5 m remaining     
|                                                                                                                                  |  1% ~5 m remaining     
|=                                                                                                                                 |  1% ~5 m remaining     
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|=                                                                                                                                 |  2% ~3 m remaining     
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|=============                                                                                                                     | 11% ~2 m remaining     
|=============                                                                                                                     | 11% ~2 m remaining     
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|==============                                                                                                                    | 12% ~3 m remaining     
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|=======================                                                                                                           | 18% ~2 m remaining     
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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 5 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3619

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[1] 0

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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 6 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3707

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|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

|                                                                                                                                  |  0% ~10 m remaining    
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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 7 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3762

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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

|                                                                                                                                  |  0% ~9 m remaining     
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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 8 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3839

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|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

|                                                                                                                                  |  1% ~7 m remaining     
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|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     
|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 9 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 3916

|================================================                                                                                  | 37% ~3 s remaining     
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|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~0 s remaining     
|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

|                                                                                                                                  |  0% ~50 m remaining    
|                                                                                                                                  |  0% ~26 m remaining    
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|=                                                                                                                                 |  2% ~9 m remaining     
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|=======                                                                                                                           |  6% ~6 m remaining     
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|===============                                                                                                                   | 12% ~6 m remaining     
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|===============                                                                                                                   | 12% ~6 m remaining     
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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 10 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 4026

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|===============================================================================================================================   | 98% ~0 s remaining     
|================================================================================================================================  | 99% ~0 s remaining     
|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

|                                                                                                                                  |  0% ~33 m remaining    
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|=                                                                                                                                 |  2% ~5 m remaining     
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|===========                                                                                                                       |  9% ~5 m remaining     
|============                                                                                                                      |  9% ~5 m remaining     
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|===============                                                                                                                   | 12% ~4 m remaining     
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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 11 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 4136

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|================================================================================================================================= | 99% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

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|==================================================================================================================================|100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "---- Round 12 ----"
[1] "Number of rows with missing values:"
[1] 4246

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|================================================================================================================================= |100% ~0 s remaining     [1] "Number of rows with missing values after filling:"
[1] 0

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pred_basic_all <- do.call(rbind, pred_basic_all)
# Save forecast results
write.csv(pred_basic_all, file.path(SCRIPT_PATH, 'submission.csv'), row.names = FALSE)
## Evaluate forecast performance
# Get the true value dataframe
true_sales_all <- list()
for (r in 1:NUM_ROUNDS){
  test_df <- read.csv(file.path(TEST_DIR, paste0('test_round_', as.character(r), '.csv')))
  true_sales_all[[paste0('Round', r)]] <-
    data.frame(round = rep(r, dim(test_df)[1]),
               store = test_df$store,
               brand = test_df$brand,
               week = test_df$week,
               truth = round(exp(test_df$logmove)))
}
true_sales_all <- do.call(rbind, true_sales_all)
# Merge prediction and true sales
merged_df <- merge(pred_basic_all, true_sales_all, 
                  by = c('round', 'store', 'brand', 'week'), 
                  all.y = TRUE)
print('MAPE')

[1] "MAPE"

print(MAPE(merged_df$prediction, merged_df$truth)*100)

[1] 77.65741

print('MedianAPE')

[1] "MedianAPE"

print(MedianAPE(merged_df$prediction, merged_df$truth)*100)

[1] 44.8773